Tuesday, April 15, 2025
 

Carney and Poilievre are fighting an election that's about both change and stability

According to survey data released last week by Pollara, Canadians are evenly split on whether they want this federal election to result in "change" or "stability" — 46 per cent of Canadians want change and 45 per cent want stability.

Among those who want change, 47 per cent say Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would best deliver that change. But among those who want stability, 66 per cent say Liberal Leader Mark Carney would best deliver it. (Dan Arnold, Pollara's chief strategy officer, was director of research for the Trudeau government from 2015 to 2021.)

Such numbers might speak to one of the central divides of this election — and explain why Carney's Liberals have staked out a lead with two weeks to go.

Poilievre has been promising change for more than two years and it is still the central theme of his campaign. At a rally in Windsor, Ont., last week, he used the word 30 times.

Poilievre's central premise is that change is necessary — that whatever ails the country and frustrates voters can be blamed on the policies of Justin Trudeau's Liberal government. And at least while Trudeau was still prime minister, Poilievre's argument seemed to be winning.

Since then, Carney has replaced Trudeau, Donald Trump has returned to the White House and, perhaps as a consequence, the Conservatives have gone from leading by 24 points to trailing by six.

Read more of Aaron Wherry's analysis.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, left, and Liberal Leader Mark Carney appear on the show Tout le monde en parle on Sunday during the federal election campaign. (Karine Dufour/Radio-Canada)

In January 2006 during the federal leaders' debate, Liberal Leader Paul Martin surprised many political observers when he seemingly out of the blue raised the issue of the notwithstanding clause.

Martin challenged Conservative Leader Stephen Harper to agree to a constitutional amendment ensuring that Ottawa would never use the controversial clause. Harper refused, and the issue, which some saw as an effort by Martin to boost his campaign, fizzled from the election campaign landscape.

But the issue has returned to this election campaign and this time it's the Conservative leader who has raised it, with a politically groundbreaking promise to become the first prime minister to invoke the clause in office.

"It's a major step obviously," said Thomas Axworthy, former prime minister Pierre Trudeau's principal secretary, who advised Trudeau during the Constitution consultations that led to the creation of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

"One of the last remaining restraining or constraining conventions about the notwithstanding [clause] is that no federal government has used it. Now we have someone enthusiastically proposing that. That's major," said Axworthy, who is now chair of public policy at the University of Toronto's Massey College.

Stéphane Sérafin, an assistant professor of law at the University of Ottawa, echoed that Pierre Poilievre's pledge to use the notwithstanding clause is significant in the sense that the provinces are the only ones that have actually used it so far.

"Just generally that's a game-changer," he said.

Read more of this story here.

CBC's Poll Tracker

Last Updated: April 14, 2025, at 7:52 a.m.

CBC's Poll Tracker, run by Éric Grenier of TheWrit.ca, has the latest polling numbers in the federal election campaign. You can click on the photo and check out the full website, complete with seat projections and the percentage chances of each party winning the election.

Here's the latest: The Liberals have held a consistent lead of six or seven points in the national polling average since the second week of the campaign and remain favoured to win a majority government if the election were held today.

The Conservatives are holding at more support than they've had in the last three elections, but it is not high enough to win when the Liberals have picked up so much of the Bloc Québécois and NDP vote. Those two parties are on track for significant seat losses.

Photo of the Day

Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet reacts during a news conference at the Hall of Justice in Quebec City on Monday. (Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press)

Listen of the Day

In two weeks, millions of Canadians go to the polls. And these next few days will prove critical to the party leaders vying for their vote. Five of them will face off in a pair of televised debates — and Power & Politics is here to set the stakes. 

Plus, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre says he would override Charter rights in order to crack down on crime. How’s that landing? And Liberal Leader Mark Carney is apologizing after some Liberal staffers planted fake Trump-style campaign buttons at a conservative event last week.

Listen to Power & Politics, CBC’s only daily political podcast, here: https://link.mgln.ai/pnpCV

Canada Votes 2025: Answering your questions live

Have a question about Canada’s federal election? Catherine Cullen, host of The House, took your questions on everything from voting to campaign platforms with CBC TikTok producer Ashley Fraser.

What else do you want to know about the federal election? Send an email to ask@cbc.ca.