 Welcome to Mind Your Business ! Consider this your weekly guide to understanding what’s happening in the worlds of economics, business and finance. By Peter Armstrong
|  | Today is election day. However you feel, whoever you support, please get out and have your say. (Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press) | | | At the outset of this campaign, I said the election was about a number of things: tariffs and trade and Trump and threats. But at its heart, it was about the economy.
Whoever wins this thing will have an incredibly difficult task ahead. Whichever party forms government will have to take immediate steps to grow the economy.
I wrote a piece about that last week, highlighting a handful of ways the next prime minister can boost economic growth. Click here to read that piece.
Because let's be honest: the economy needs a boost.
GDP is weak. GDP per capita has been a disaster for two years now. The unemployment rate is rising. Business confidence is falling.
And all that was in play before Donald Trump launched his trade war on Canada.
This week, Canada's next prime minister will get updated numbers on the state of Canadian GDP.
This week's economic growth data looks back at GDP in February. Remember, Trump's first major tariff announcement came on Feb. 1. Those were the so-called fentanyl tariffs. They were scaled back a few days later.
The bulk of Trump's trade actions have come since the beginning of March.
So we will probably look back at February GDP numbers as the last of the pre-tariff economic data.
Here's where things stood when last we checked in on GDP. | | |  | | | | | In the last report, Statcan's preliminary numbers for February showed GDP growth was unchanged. There's not a lot of reason to think this week's release will come in stronger than expected.
"The preliminary estimate for March GDP could look softer. Employment declined by 33,000 in March—the largest decline in three years—and, the unemployment rate ticked higher," wrote RBC economists Nathan Janzen and Abbey Xu.
And Canadians have been feeling that. When you talk to people on the main street of your town or neighbourhood, it's tough to find someone who's brimming with enthusiasm.
The Bank of Canada says a full-scale trade war could plunge Canada into a recession.
That recession wouldn't be particularly deep, but it would drag on for a full year. That would be felt right across the country. This isn't just going to leave a mark on sectors that are exposed to trade or tariffs.
A recession would hurt everyone.
And look at just about any economic indicator. It wouldn't take much to nudge the Canadian economy from meagre growth to contraction.
A recession is merely two back-to-back quarters (or six straight months) of contraction. |  | | | To make matters worse, U.S. numbers may well show the economy there was already slowing through the first quarter of the year (January, February and March)..
"We expect GDP edged outright lower in Q1—in part due to a pull-back in net trade as imports surged ahead of new tariffs, but consumer spending growth also slowed sharply," wrote Janzen and Xu.
So, the first task of the next government will be picking the areas where it thinks it can get some growth. The next task will be executing whatever plan they have to help that growth materialize.
In a lot of ways, winning the election will be the easy part. Actually doing the work and seeing through the promises made to Canadian voters is far more difficult.
We have had extensive coverage throughout this campaign. You can follow along through the final moments of this campaign at cbc.ca/news.
To catch all the results, you have plenty of options. My colleague Rosemary Barton will host our coverage on CBC-TV.
Susan Bonner and Piya Chattopadhyay will begin special coverage on CBC Radio One and the CBC Listen app, starting at 7 p.m. ET | | |  | | | Share this newsletter | | or subscribe if this was
forwarded to you. | | |  | | Election Day is Monday. A record 7.3 million Canadians got out and voted in advance polls. Have your say today. | | | | | | We will get the latest GDP numbers on Wednesday. These will look back at the state of economic growth in February, so it will only measure the very beginning of the tariff shock. | | | | | | The Bank of Canada will release its Summary of Deliberations on Wednesday. This report is looking into the central bank's interest rate decision from April 16. | | | | | Three things to read, watch and listen to this week | | |  | Mountainhead is the latest work from Succession creator Jesse Armstrong. (HBO) | | | 1. Mountainhead and the end of the world | | | Jesse Armstrong has a way of putting his finger on the pulse of how we see the world. He's the writer and creator of the hit show Succession, which chronicled a horrible family running a media company through American turmoil.
Now, he turns his focus to the ways in which tech billionaires have made a bad situation worse and profited by it.
The trailer for the new film, Mountainhead, dropped and I'm absolutely obsessed with it.
It tells the story of four friends collectively worth nearly half a trillion dollars.
The friends gather for an escapist dream of snowmobile rides, booze and gourmet food. In the background, the world is coming apart at the seams.
The film stars Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman, Cory Michael Smith and Ramy Youssef as vaguely tech-oriented founder types.
"Carell plays a character named Randall, Schwartzman is Hugo Van Yalk (aka “Souper”) and Ramy Youssef is Jeff, who badgers Cory Michael Smith’s character Venis for his "racist and shitty" platform (sound familiar?),'" wrote Ethan Shanfeld in Variety.
As financial markets collapse and violence breaks out around the world, the four friends remain focused on enjoying their boys' trip. But Armstrong has a wonderful way of making his characters grapple with the real world they are so often desperate to avoid.
“This is a serious moment. I think that is why I’m so excited about these atrocities,” Carell says in the trailer. “I’m thinking about all of the people who are not killing each other.”
Variety also had a sitdown with Youssef, who told the magazine that Mountainhead is "funny in the same way Succession is."
I can't think of a better endorsement than that.
Check out the trailer for Mountainhead here.
Read the Variety review of the film here. | | | 2. More than a trade war | | | I have to admit I am usually drawn to the articles and interviews and segments that attempt to explain the moment we are in. I try to avoid the bombastic hot takes that are just about everywhere these days.
And yet, sometimes it's good to hear the counter narrative.
The (always spectacular) Odd Lots podcast had a fascinating conversation about the state of the trade war, the potential off-ramps and what Trump really wants.
Their guest was David Woo. He's the CEO and host of the YouTube channel David Woo Unbound. Before all that he was the head of global rates, currency, emerging markets, fixed income and economics research at Bank of America.
He was also a Trump supporter. But Woo thinks Trump has let his trade policies get out of control.
"I think this is much more than just a trade war. I think this is war, actually," he told Odd Lots.
Wu told the podcast hosts about a piece of lighting he was trying to buy for his YouTube studio. The specific product he was looking for is only made in China, so he was expecting a much higher price due to the tariffs.
But the supplier told him they had stocked up. Woo says that's happening throughout the economy right now, which is blunting the blow of tariffs.
That's good, he says, but it's only a delay of the inevitable pain that's coming.
"Americans have not even begun to feel an iota of the tariff. I mean, the stock market obviously has gone down a bit, that kind of thing, but it's like nothing," he said.
Both hosts tried to get Woo to map out what an exit ramp might look like. Wu says the China hawks in the Trump administration are winning out over the pragmatists. And as things escalate, an off-ramp gets harder to build.
Unsatisfied with that answer, the hosts asked Woo what the medium term is going to look like.
"I think it's gonna look like a shitshow. I really believe it's going to be a shitshow. I think we're going to be going to a recession. I think Trump's approval rating is gonna collapse," said Woo.
As I said, I don't love the hot takes. Most people think reason will prevail and both sides will lead to a de-escalation.
But the risk that things get worse, not better, is growing. So I wanted to include the contrarian take to at least keep it in our pockets as this drags on.
Check out this episode of Odd Lots. | | | 3. The symbolism of the Gordie Howe Bridge | | | I love the videos the Wall Street Journal puts out.
They're smart and well done and mercifully short.
This one is about the Gordie Howe Bridge between Ontario and Michigan.
"A 2021 study estimated that the bridge would cut 20 minutes off crossing time, saving truckers over 1.5 billion U.S. dollars over 30 years," says the video's narrator.
But 2021 was a long time ago.
For years, the bridge was like a symbol of strengthening ties and deepening integration between two long-time allies focused on mutual prosperity.
"I don't think [Canadians] expected Donald Trump to come along and threaten that," said Wall Street Journal reporter Vipal Monga.
The new bridge, which is now slated to open in the fall of 2025, would connect the highway system between Canada and the U.S. —essentially providing an easy link between manufacturers and car parts suppliers stretching from Quebec to Florida.
"The Gordie Howe Bridge was meant to be, in some ways, a celebration of the close ties between the countries. Those ties are frayed. The Gordie Howe Bridge threatens now to become a symbol of an era that once was and may never be again," said Monga.
The bridge is like a metaphor. A colossal piece of infrastructure that cost billions of dollars, built on the premise that Canada and the U.S. needed more integration, not less.
Today, it stands almost complete, almost doesn't count for much. Certainly not when the president of the United States repeatedly says he wants to unwind that integration.
Check out the Wall Street Journal video here. | | | How the economy looks beyond Bay Street | | | Jobs update | | | I've been using this space to follow up on data I wrote about in the previous week.
Last week, I mentioned we would get an update on the jobs numbers. That may lead to some confusion as I we are also watching for jobs numbers next week.
Both are true! Last week, we got the Survey of Employment, Payroll and Hours. Next week we will get the Labour Force Survey.
The SEPH numbers take longer to compile, but are more reliable. The LFS data comes faster, but is more prone to revisions.
So it's important to keep an eye on both.
That said, the SEPH numbers last week paint the same sorry picture the LFS numbers have been painting. | | |  | That tweet comes via Philip Smith, the former assistant chief statistician for Statistics Canada.
Weakness abounds. And these figures were largely compiled before the trade war really took hold.
So expect to see them drop further.
That's why job No. 1 for the next prime minister will be figuring out ways of growing the economy in spite of the trade war.
What do you think?
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forwarded to you. | | | That's it for this week | | | Drop me a line anytime.
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